Executive Summary

As of Nov 20, 2025, REX has not yet published its fiscal Q3 2025 results; management indicated Q3 would “outperform the second quarter, but will not be as strong as last year’s third quarter,” with supportive tailwinds from ethanol exports and favorable corn supply .
Q2 2025 delivered net sales of $158.6M and diluted EPS of $0.43; the Board approved a 2-for-1 stock split and the company ended the quarter with $310.5M of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments and no bank debt .
The One Earth expansion and carbon capture projects remain on track for 2026, with total spend of ~$126.7M and budget of $220–$230M; EPA Class VI well permitting timeline pulled forward to March 2026 .
Prior two quarters (Q1 and Q2 2025) show sustained profitability: Q1 EPS $0.51 and Q2 EPS $0.43; management highlighted 19–20 consecutive profitable quarters and rising ethanol exports (+10% y/y through June) .
Near-term catalysts: Q3 2025 print (expected early Dec), ongoing 45Q/45Z support, and carbon capture permitting progress; stock split enhances liquidity and could broaden investor base .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Strong balance sheet: $310.5M in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments; no bank debt .
Operational consistency and profitability: management emphasized “20 consecutive quarters of positive earnings” and expects Q3 to outperform Q2, supported by export demand and corn supply .
Co-product strength: corn oil volumes and pricing improved y/y, driving a ~46% increase in sales dollars in Q2; “corn oil continues to be very strong” (Stuart Rose) .

What Went Wrong

Margin compression: Q2 gross profit fell to $14.3M from $19.8M y/y due to lower dried distillers grain (DDG) prices and higher shipping costs recorded in COGS .
DDG weakness: DDG export demand declined versus last year; Mexico buying less; management flagged DDG price pressure relative to corn .
Lower interest/other income: Q2 interest and other income declined to $3.1M from $4.4M y/y, reflecting lower rates/investments; Q1 also saw reduced interest/other income y/y .

Financial Results

Note: Q3 2025 results are not yet filed; tables show prior year Q3 and the last two reported quarters for trajectory.

Metric	Q3 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Sales and Revenue ($USD Millions)	$174.9 [investors.rexamerican.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rex-american-resources-reports-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-net]	$158.3	$158.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$39.7 [investors.rexamerican.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rex-american-resources-reports-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-net]	$14.3	$14.3
Net Income Attributable to REX ($USD Millions)	$24.5 [investors.rexamerican.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rex-american-resources-reports-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-net]	$8.7	$7.1
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$1.38 [investors.rexamerican.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rex-american-resources-reports-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-net]	$0.51	$0.43

KPIs (reported volumes and pricing):

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Ethanol Sales Volume (MM gallons)	70.9	70.6
Avg Ethanol Price ($/gal)	$1.76	$1.75
DDG Volume (000 tons)	153	148
Avg DDG Price ($/ton)	$145.65	$143.63
Corn Oil Volume (MM lbs)	21.4	23.1
Avg Corn Oil Price ($/lb)	$0.46	$0.54

Guidance Changes

Management does not issue formal numerical guidance; directional commentary provided on outlook and project milestones.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Performance vs prior quarter	Q3 2025	n/a	“On pace to outperform Q2, but will not be as strong as last year’s third quarter”	Qualitative update
Ethanol exports	FY 2025	n/a	Exports ~10% ahead of 2024 through June; 2025 expected to set a new record	Positive trend
Corn supply	2H 2025	n/a	Early estimates suggest a potential record U.S. corn harvest, benefiting margins	Positive trend
One Earth expansion completion	Project timing	Mid-2025 earlier plan; 2026 operational target	Project completion still anticipated in 2026	Timing affirmed
CCS permitting	EPA Class VI	April 2026 prior site estimate	EPA timeline moved forward to March 2026	Improved timeline
CCS + expansion budget	Total capex	$220–$230M	$220–$230M (unchanged); ~$126.7M spent by Q2	Maintained
Capital allocation	Share repurchase	1.5M buyback authorized Mar ’25; activity ongoing	822K shares repurchased in Q1 for $32.7M; split increased buyback authorization shares by 100% post-split	Active buybacks
Corporate action	Stock split	n/a	2-for-1 stock split via 100% stock dividend; payable Sep 15, 2025; outstanding shares ~33.06M post-split	Announced

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Carbon capture & 45Q/45Z	Monitoring BBB Act; EPA Class VI decision anticipated Jan 2026; total spend ~$122.7M; budget $220–$230M	BBB Act supports 45Q/45Z; EPA Class VI now March 2026; spend ~$126.7M; budget reaffirmed	Call not yet available; projects remain on track for 2026	Positive policy tailwind
Ethanol exports	Exports +19% y/y through March; supportive fundamentals	Exports +10% y/y through June; 2025 expected record year	Expect continued strength into Q3	Improving
DDG pricing/export	Lower DDG prices; volumes ~153k tons	DDG weaker vs corn; Mexico buying less; volumes ~148k tons	Weakness persists; closely watched	Mixed/weak
Corn supply	Positive outlook; strong planting	Potential record harvest; benefits feedstock costs	Favorable into Q3	Improving
Pipeline permitting (IL)	Aquifer siting ~6 miles away; SB1723 positive	Utility interconnection resolved; IL moratorium expiry; multi-permit path (county, IEPA, ICC)	Progress dependent on permits; build timeline a “couple of months” post-ICC approval	Advancing
Energy efficiency/CI score	Reviewing components; efficiency focus	Energy efficiency completed; potential CI advantages; waiting for guidelines	Awaiting clarity on CI methodology	Potential upside

Management Commentary

“Our third quarter for 2025 is on pace to outperform the second quarter, but will not be as strong as our last year's third quarter, which was our second-best quarter on record.” — Zafar Rizvi, CEO .
“The continuation of the 45Q tax credit [and] extension of the 45Z tax credit through 2029 [are] important to the economics of our project.” — Stuart Rose, Executive Chairman .
“Gross profit for the second quarter was $14.3 million… [reflecting] lower sales prices for dry distiller grains… [and] higher shipping cost.” — Douglas Bruggeman, CFO .
“As of July 31, 2025, REX had $310.5 million of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments available and no bank debt.” — Q2 press release .

Q&A Highlights

CI score and 45Z eligibility: Management expects CI score benefits from removal of “climate smart farming” mandates; potential to qualify for credits even before CCS is operational, pending final guidelines .
Illinois pipeline moratorium and permitting: With utility interconnection resolved, management outlined a permit path (county special use, IEPA, ICC) and estimated pipeline build time of “a couple of months” post-ICC approval; pipeline ~6.5 miles to avoid aquifer concerns .
Co-products outlook: Corn oil strong; DDG weaker relative to corn; export demand for DDG declined vs last year; Mexico buying less .
Macro/export: Ethanol exports up ~10% y/y through June; Japan and Britain cited as likely buyers; tariffs remain a watch item .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 was unavailable via tool at this time; we could not retrieve EPS and revenue estimates due to a data access limit. Values retrieved from S&P Global*
External trackers indicate an estimated early-December earnings date; the company’s investor relations site lists quarterly results navigation but no Q3 2025 posting as of Nov 20, 2025 .
Given management’s commentary, near-term estimates may need to reflect: better sequential performance vs Q2, but below Q3 2024’s record-like levels; continued DDG pressure; improved corn oil pricing; and export tailwinds .

Metric	Q3 2025 Consensus	# of Estimates
Primary EPS Consensus Mean	N/A*	N/A*
Revenue Consensus Mean	N/A*	N/A*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

Key Takeaways for Investors

Expect Q3 2025 results to be better than Q2 2025 but below Q3 2024’s exceptionally strong print; watch margin drivers (corn costs, DDG pricing, shipping) .
Balance sheet strength (no bank debt; $310.5M liquidity) provides flexibility to fund CCS and expansion within the $220–$230M budget and to opportunistically repurchase shares .
Policy tailwinds (45Q/45Z) and clearer CI methodologies could unlock incremental economics; monitor EPA Class VI timeline (March 2026), IEPA/ICC county permits, and Illinois moratorium developments .
Export demand remains a positive catalyst; continued progress and tariff resolutions with key buyers (Japan, Britain, North America) could support margins into Q4 .
Co-product mix matters: strength in corn oil offsets DDG weakness; sustained recovery in DDG pricing would be a lever for gross margin stabilization .
The 2-for-1 stock split enhances liquidity; near-term share dynamics may attract incremental trading interest around the Q3 print .
Risk checks: natural gas pricing, shipping costs, and permitting timelines are key variables; use Q3 results to validate trajectory before re-rating .

Appendix: Prior Quarter Documents Read

Q1 2025 8-K press release and financials (May 28, 2025)
Q2 2025 8-K press release and financials (Aug 27, 2025)
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (Aug 27, 2025)
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (May 28, 2025)
Prior-year Q3 2024 press release (Dec 3, 2024) [investors.rexamerican.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rex-american-resources-reports-fiscal-2024-third-quarter-net] [investors.rexamerican.com/node/12481/pdf]

REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp (REX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary